12 January 2018 - 04:35 PM
Lula's Jan. 24 Trial: Determining the Future of Brazil?
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The outcome of one of the most important presidential elections of 2018, that of BRICS giant Brazil, could be determined by a regional appeals court decision on January 24, responsible for overturning or upholding the conviction of former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on corruption allegations.

Brazil's former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva attends a rally at the National Congress of Garbage Collectors in Brasilia, Brazil December 13, 2017.

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The charges in question involve supposed corruption and money-laundering, with prosecutors claiming he led a “criminal orchestra” surrounding state-run oil company Petrobras and contract companies. Should convictions be upheld, Lula, as he is known, could face up to 10 years in prison.

This isn't any trial though, and Lula isn't just any old politician or former leader. The former leftist president and founder of Brazil's Worker's Party is also the most popular candidate for Brazil's 2018 presidential race, and has been campaigning this past year to fire up his deeply rooted base among the nation's poor and working classes.

Lula is immensely popular for his legacy of bringing social programs and prosperity to Brazil's ordinary people. When he left the presidency in 2011, the former leftist trade unionist, and metal worker had a staggering approval rating of 83 percent, according to Datafolha.

The context for these elections is one of upheaval and resentment. After Lula's successor and Worker's Party comrade Dilma Rousseff was ousted in a parliamentary coup to be replaced with right-winger Michel Temer, the massive social gains made in Brazil have rapidly unraveled, with IMF-directed mass privatizations and repeated slashes to social programs.

The rightward turn has taken its toll on Brazilians, with some 88 percent of the people rejecting Temer's leadership, according to CNI.

While Temer is widely viewed as a corrupt right-winger who does the bidding of the IMF and international financial interests, the Brazilian political establishment has been busy prosecuting Lula on corruption, charges he denies and says are politically motivated to keep him out of the presidential race.

“If they don't want me to be a (presidential) candidate, go to the polls and vote against me. Don't create artifices and tricks to prevent my candidacy,” Lula told his legal and media opponents.

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The upcoming regional appeals court decision, to be held in the southern city of Porto Alegre will largely determine the outcome of the coming elections. Should the court decide to overturn the conviction, Lula is the favored victor for the presidency, but a conviction would likely disqualify Lula from the race, leading to almost certain political turmoil, and a scramble for votes by the other candidates.

In the weeks leading up to the politically charged trial, Lula has said that he feels “not concerned” by the imminent ruling, saying that insufficient evidence has been provided by the prosecution, and that he has a number of legal tools remaining at his disposal.

Rather than focus on the legal case, Lula has kept on the campaign trail promoting his signature brand of progressive populism. “We must start talking about wealth distribution,” he said at a late December press conference after dismissing concerns about a possible ouster from the race.

The former trade-union leader's program for Brazil stands in sharp contrast with not only current (unelected) President Temer, but also his closest rival in the next elections, ultra-right-wing congressman Jair Bolsonaro.

Bolsonaro has been known for praising the country's military dictatorship that ruled with an iron fist between 1964 and 1984, claiming Brazilians enjoyed “total freedom” during the period in which leftists and social leaders were brutally imprisoned and tortured.

The right-winger has also praised the brutal coup-regime of General Pinochet in Chile, who was responsible for the repression of dissent and the forced disappearance of thousands. Bolsonaro has been quoted as saying that Pinochet “should have killed more people.”

As one of the most iconic symbols of Latin America's 21st century leftist movements and the “Pink Tide” that has included Venezuela's Hugo Chavez, Bolivia's Evo Morales, and Ecuador's Rafael Correa, the potential of a Lula victory would be both materially and symbolically significant for not only Brazil's but Latin America's left movements as a whole.

Ultimately, the future of Brazil's democracy, which will determine the path to be taken for the millions of workers within Latin America's largest economy, is largely hinged on the decision of an appeals court, and the ability or inability of Lula's judicial and media detractors to remove the country's most popular political figure on what many say are dubious charges.

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